Main
Women's Flyweight
Marina Rodriguez vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marina Rodriguez
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
74%
26%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
62"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
18-6-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
19-13
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Rodriguez: 125 sig / 0 TD ·
Waterson-Gomez: 88 sig / 1 TD
Marina Rodriguez
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
70
Sig strikes landed
57
158
Sig strikes attempted
131
92
Total strikes landed
79
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
97s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marina Rodriguez
18-6-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-1
Last 5
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
19-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—