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Prelims1 Lightweight

Scott Holtzman vs Mateusz Gamrot

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Scott Holtzman
Mateusz Gamrot
20% 80%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
38
Age
Δ 7y
30
14-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
26-5
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Holtzman: 10 sig / 0 TD · Gamrot: 39 sig / 2 TD
Scott Holtzman
Mateusz Gamrot
52
Sig strikes landed
56
125
Sig strikes attempted
129
78
Total strikes landed
83
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
4.2
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
177s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Scott Holtzman

"Hot Sauce"
14-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
W UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
L UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
W UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Blue corner
L1

Mateusz Gamrot

"Gamer"
26-5 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…