Prelims1
Lightweight
John Makdessi vs Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Ignacio Bahamondes
33%
67%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 8"
76"
36
Age
Δ 12y
24
L1
Current streak
—
17
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Makdessi: 124 sig / 0 TD ·
Bahamondes: 112 sig / 0 TD
John Makdessi
Ignacio Bahamondes
66
Sig strikes landed
66
127
Sig strikes attempted
136
84
Total strikes landed
65
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
58s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
18-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
Blue corner
Ignacio Bahamondes
"La Jaula"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24