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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Yorgan De Castro vs Jarjis Danho

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Yorgan De Castro
Jarjis Danho
54% 46%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
34
Age
Δ 3y
38
6-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
7-1-2
L2
Current streak
D1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
De Castro: 2 sig / 0 TD · Danho: 10 sig / 0 TD
Yorgan De Castro
Jarjis Danho
30
Sig strikes landed
36
66
Sig strikes attempted
66
49
Total strikes landed
52
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Yorgan De Castro

"The Mad Titan"
6-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
D1

Jarjis Danho

"Man Mountain"
7-1-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
D UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—