Main
Women's Strawweight
Nina Nunes vs Mackenzie Dern
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nina Nunes
Mackenzie Dern
32%
68%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
11-8
Career record
Δ 19 pp
17-5
L1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nunes: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Dern: 12 sig / 1 TD
Nina Nunes
Mackenzie Dern
41
Sig strikes landed
51
84
Sig strikes attempted
124
49
Total strikes landed
85
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
58s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nina Nunes
11-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Mackenzie Dern
17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—