Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Alvey
Julian Marquez
76%
24%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
33-18-2
Career record
Δ 0 pp
10-6
D1
Current streak
W1
20
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Alvey: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Marquez: 61 sig / 0 TD
Sam Alvey
Julian Marquez
44
Sig strikes landed
44
91
Sig strikes attempted
102
51
Total strikes landed
53
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33-18-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
20 fights · 10-9
Last 5
D
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
W1
Julian Marquez
"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
10-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—