Prelims1
Featherweight
Pat Sabatini vs Tristan Connelly
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pat Sabatini
Tristan Connelly
85%
15%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sabatini: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Connelly: 19 sig / 1 TD
Pat Sabatini
Tristan Connelly
43
Sig strikes landed
40
90
Sig strikes attempted
95
63
Total strikes landed
63
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.6
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
118s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Pat Sabatini
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
W1
Tristan Connelly
"Boondock"
15-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
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