Prelims1
Middleweight
Karl Roberson vs Brendan Allen
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karl Roberson
Brendan Allen
15%
85%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
31
Age
Δ 5y
25
9-7
Career record
Δ 20 pp
26-8
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Roberson: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Allen: 9 sig / 2 TD
Karl Roberson
Brendan Allen
14
Sig strikes landed
28
32
Sig strikes attempted
53
24
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
72s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Karl Roberson
"Baby K"
9-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
Blue corner
L1
Brendan Allen
"All In"
26-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—