Back to UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Batgerel Danaa vs Kevin Natividad

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Batgerel Danaa
Kevin Natividad
58% 42%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
13-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
9-5
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Danaa: 7 sig / 0 TD · Natividad: 3 sig / 0 TD
Batgerel Danaa
Kevin Natividad
52
Sig strikes landed
40
130
Sig strikes attempted
102
65
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
90s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Batgerel Danaa

"Storm"
13-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
Blue corner
L1

Kevin Natividad

"Quicksand"
9-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—