Back to UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Prelims2 Flyweight

Aoriqileng vs Jeff Molina

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Aoriqileng
Jeff Molina
57% 43%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
28
Age
Δ 4y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aoriqileng: 116 sig / 3 TD · Molina: 189 sig / 0 TD
Aoriqileng
Jeff Molina
39
Sig strikes landed
34
80
Sig strikes attempted
74
57
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Aoriqileng

"The Mongolian Murderer"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Jeff Molina

"El Jefe"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24