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Kazula Vargas vs Rongzhu

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kazula Vargas
Rongzhu
10% 90%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
36
Age
Δ 15y
21
L2
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vargas: 96 sig / 0 TD · Rongzhu: 42 sig / 3 TD
Kazula Vargas
Rongzhu
36
Sig strikes landed
35
70
Sig strikes attempted
68
49
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.70
126s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Kazula Vargas

12-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
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L UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
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Blue corner

Rongzhu

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21