Prelims2
Women's Strawweight
Liang Na vs Ariane Carnelossi
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Liang Na
Ariane Carnelossi
62%
38%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 6"
62"
25
Age
Δ 4y
28
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Na: 19 sig / 3 TD ·
Carnelossi: 24 sig / 0 TD
Liang Na
Ariane Carnelossi
61
Sig strikes landed
46
136
Sig strikes attempted
124
88
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
104s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Liang Na
"The Dragon Girl"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
L1
Ariane Carnelossi
"Sorriso"
15-5
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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