Prelims1
Welterweight
Alex Oliveira vs Randy Brown
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Randy Brown
47%
53%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
22-13-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-9
L1
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Oliveira: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Brown: 16 sig / 0 TD
Alex Oliveira
Randy Brown
34
Sig strikes landed
39
65
Sig strikes attempted
80
50
Total strikes landed
61
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
189s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22-13-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
19 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
Blue corner
L1
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
20-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—