🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Strawweight
Zhang Weili vs Rose Namajunas
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zhang Weili
Rose Namajunas
84%
16%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
27-4
Career record
Δ 20 pp
16-8
W5
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Weili: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Namajunas: 5 sig / 0 TD
Zhang Weili
Rose Namajunas
67
Sig strikes landed
55
151
Sig strikes attempted
164
96
Total strikes landed
78
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Zhang Weili
"Magnum"
27-4
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
Blue corner
W1
Rose Namajunas
"Thug"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—