🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Jorge Masvidal
71%
29%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
22-4
Career record
Δ 19 pp
35-18
W8
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Usman: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Masvidal: 31 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Jorge Masvidal
77
Sig strikes landed
71
144
Sig strikes attempted
146
136
Total strikes landed
83
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
454s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 13-0
Last 5
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
19 fights · 12-7
Last 5
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—