Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Luis Pena
Alexander Munoz
76%
24%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
9-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
7-3
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pena: 90 sig / 0 TD ·
Munoz: 80 sig / 4 TD
Luis Pena
Alexander Munoz
51
Sig strikes landed
34
115
Sig strikes attempted
79
82
Total strikes landed
50
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
201s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Luis Pena
"Violent Bob Ross"
9-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alexander Munoz
7-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—