Back to UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Main Women's Flyweight

Tracy Cortez vs Justine Kish

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tracy Cortez
Justine Kish
83% 17%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
13-3
Career record
Δ 23 pp
7-5
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cortez: 66 sig / 3 TD · Kish: 55 sig / 0 TD
Tracy Cortez
Justine Kish
59
Sig strikes landed
48
132
Sig strikes attempted
105
98
Total strikes landed
63
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
321s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Tracy Cortez

13-3
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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Blue corner
L1

Justine Kish

7-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
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L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
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L UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
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