Prelims1
Lightweight
Leonardo Santos vs Grant Dawson
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Leonardo Santos
Grant Dawson
14%
86%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
41
Age
Δ 14y
27
19-7-1
Career record
Δ 16 pp
25-3-1
W6
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Santos: 30 sig / 1 TD ·
Dawson: 46 sig / 1 TD
Leonardo Santos
Grant Dawson
25
Sig strikes landed
37
71
Sig strikes attempted
72
45
Total strikes landed
58
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
6.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
292s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Leonardo Santos
19-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
8 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
Blue corner
W4
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
25-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—