Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Marion Reneau vs Macy Chiasson
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marion Reneau
Macy Chiasson
22%
78%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
44
Age
Δ 14y
30
9-9-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
12-6
L3
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Reneau: 30 sig / 2 TD ·
Chiasson: 51 sig / 1 TD
Marion Reneau
Macy Chiasson
34
Sig strikes landed
50
82
Sig strikes attempted
116
53
Total strikes landed
73
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Marion Reneau
"The Belizean Bruiser"
9-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database
11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
Blue corner
W1
Macy Chiasson
12-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—