Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jonathan Martinez
Davey Grant
78%
22%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
27
Age
Δ 8y
35
20-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-8
W2
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Martinez: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Grant: 48 sig / 0 TD
Jonathan Martinez
Davey Grant
55
Sig strikes landed
42
121
Sig strikes attempted
104
74
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
108s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jonathan Martinez
"Dragon"
20-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
W2
Davey Grant
"Dangerous"
19-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—