Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Manel Kape
Matheus Nicolau
57%
43%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
22-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kape: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Nicolau: 55 sig / 2 TD
Manel Kape
Matheus Nicolau
39
Sig strikes landed
42
97
Sig strikes attempted
100
59
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
69s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
22-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
L1
Matheus Nicolau
19-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—