Prelims1
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast vs Rafa Garcia
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nasrat Haqparast
Rafa Garcia
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
W1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Haqparast: 99 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 52 sig / 0 TD
Nasrat Haqparast
Rafa Garcia
53
Sig strikes landed
41
116
Sig strikes attempted
98
67
Total strikes landed
53
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
72s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nasrat Haqparast
19-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
Blue corner
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27