Back to UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Cortney Casey vs JJ Aldrich

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad ·Meta Apex
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Cortney Casey
JJ Aldrich
29% 71%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
34
Age
Δ 5y
28
10-11
Career record
Δ 18 pp
15-8
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Casey: 55 sig / 0 TD · Aldrich: 45 sig / 4 TD
Cortney Casey
JJ Aldrich
61
Sig strikes landed
64
135
Sig strikes attempted
148
80
Total strikes landed
85
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
60s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
84%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Cortney Casey

"Cast Iron"
10-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 12 fights · 5-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1

JJ Aldrich

15-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—