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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Gloria de Paula vs Jinh Yu Frey

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gloria de Paula
Jinh Yu Frey
71% 29%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
26
Age
Δ 10y
36
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
de Paula: 31 sig / 0 TD · Frey: 24 sig / 2 TD
Gloria de Paula
Jinh Yu Frey
38
Sig strikes landed
30
69
Sig strikes attempted
59
66
Total strikes landed
58
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
137s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Gloria de Paula

"Glorinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
L2

Jinh Yu Frey

11-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
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