Main
Light Heavyweight
Misha Cirkunov vs Ryan Spann
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Misha Cirkunov
Ryan Spann
32%
68%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
16-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-12
W1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cirkunov: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Spann: 16 sig / 0 TD
Misha Cirkunov
Ryan Spann
18
Sig strikes landed
29
44
Sig strikes attempted
59
31
Total strikes landed
41
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
103s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Misha Cirkunov
16-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24-12
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—