Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Belal Muhammad
57%
43%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
23-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-5
W8
Current streak
W4
12
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 2
Edwards: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Muhammad: 8 sig / 0 TD
Leon Edwards
Belal Muhammad
52
Sig strikes landed
51
126
Sig strikes attempted
119
73
Total strikes landed
75
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
4.5
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
151s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
Blue corner
W4
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—