Back to UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Prelims1 Welterweight

Matthew Semelsberger vs Jason Witt

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Matthew Semelsberger
Jason Witt
57% 43%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
12-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
20-9
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Semelsberger: 3 sig / 0 TD · Witt: 4 sig / 0 TD
Matthew Semelsberger
Jason Witt
77
Sig strikes landed
43
110
Sig strikes attempted
92
85
Total strikes landed
57
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.1
0.4
Takedowns attempted
9.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
82s
Control time
222s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Matthew Semelsberger

"Semi The Jedi"
12-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
Blue corner
W1

Jason Witt

"The Vanilla Gorilla"
20-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—