Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Modestas Bukauskas
Michal Oleksiejczuk
57%
43%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
20-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-10
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Bukauskas: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Oleksiejczuk: 56 sig / 0 TD
Modestas Bukauskas
Michal Oleksiejczuk
20
Sig strikes landed
25
68
Sig strikes attempted
63
31
Total strikes landed
39
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
72s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
L2
Michal Oleksiejczuk
"Hussar"
22-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—