Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jared Gooden
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
70%
30%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
23-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-5-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gooden: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Nurmagomedov: 60 sig / 1 TD
Jared Gooden
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
32
Sig strikes landed
50
73
Sig strikes attempted
125
82
Total strikes landed
71
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
94s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jared Gooden
"NiteTrain"
23-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
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Blue corner
L1
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
17-5-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—