Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alonzo Menifield
Fabio Cherant
68%
32%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Menifield: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Cherant: 0 sig / 0 TD
Alonzo Menifield
Fabio Cherant
30
Sig strikes landed
28
59
Sig strikes attempted
56
48
Total strikes landed
37
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
197s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
18-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
Fabio Cherant
"Water Buffalo"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26