Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jamie Mullarkey
Khama Worthy
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
27
Age
Δ 8y
34
18-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-10
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mullarkey: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Worthy: 5 sig / 0 TD
Jamie Mullarkey
Khama Worthy
28
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
67
48
Total strikes landed
49
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
186s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jamie Mullarkey
18-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L1
Khama Worthy
"The Death Star"
16-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—