Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Sean O'Malley
Thomas Almeida
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 3y
30
19-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-6
L1
Current streak
L3
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
O'Malley: 86 sig / 0 TD ·
Almeida: 25 sig / 1 TD
Sean O'Malley
Thomas Almeida
59
Sig strikes landed
40
118
Sig strikes attempted
100
73
Total strikes landed
52
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
40s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
19-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
Blue corner
L3
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
22-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—