Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tyron Woodley
Vicente Luque
40%
60%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
39
Age
Δ 10y
29
19-8-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
25-12-1
L3
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Woodley: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Luque: 25 sig / 0 TD
Tyron Woodley
Vicente Luque
45
Sig strikes landed
63
89
Sig strikes attempted
126
49
Total strikes landed
78
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
99s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
19-8-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
15 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—