Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Uros Medic
Aalon Cruz
73%
27%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 7"
78"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Medic: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Cruz: 0 sig / 0 TD
Uros Medic
Aalon Cruz
42
Sig strikes landed
26
73
Sig strikes attempted
75
57
Total strikes landed
36
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
183s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Uros Medic
"The Doctor"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
L1
Aalon Cruz
8-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
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