Prelims2
Women's Strawweight
Livinha Souza vs Amanda Lemos
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Livinha Souza
Amanda Lemos
58%
42%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
15-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
16-6-1
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Souza: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Lemos: 29 sig / 0 TD
Livinha Souza
Amanda Lemos
24
Sig strikes landed
32
53
Sig strikes attempted
61
49
Total strikes landed
58
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
167s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Livinha Souza
"The Brazilian Gangsta"
15-4
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
W2
Amanda Lemos
16-6-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—