Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mario Bautista
Trevin Jones
83%
17%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
18-3
Career record
Δ 29 pp
13-10
W2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Bautista: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Jones: 23 sig / 0 TD
Mario Bautista
Trevin Jones
54
Sig strikes landed
36
109
Sig strikes attempted
95
73
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
101s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
Trevin Jones
"5 Star"
13-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-0