Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Jordan Espinosa
56%
44%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
23-14-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-10
W1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 25 sig / 4 TD ·
Espinosa: 13 sig / 0 TD
Tim Elliott
Jordan Espinosa
45
Sig strikes landed
50
105
Sig strikes attempted
100
66
Total strikes landed
61
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
244s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Elliott
23-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 5-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
Blue corner
L1
Jordan Espinosa
"The Gamer"
15-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—