Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rogerio Bontorin
Kai Kara-France
47%
53%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
16-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
25-13
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Bontorin: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Kara-France: 13 sig / 0 TD
Rogerio Bontorin
Kai Kara-France
39
Sig strikes landed
34
95
Sig strikes attempted
90
50
Total strikes landed
60
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rogerio Bontorin
16-5
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
Blue corner
L1
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
25-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—