Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sean Brady
Jake Matthews
60%
40%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
20-2
Career record
Δ 16 pp
24-8
W3
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Brady: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Matthews: 21 sig / 0 TD
Sean Brady
Jake Matthews
45
Sig strikes landed
43
92
Sig strikes attempted
102
71
Total strikes landed
60
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.3
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
169s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Sean Brady
20-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
W3
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—