Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Askar Askarov
57%
43%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
37
Age
Δ 8y
28
28-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
15-1-1
L2
Current streak
W2
20
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benavidez: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Askarov: 58 sig / 5 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Askar Askarov
47
Sig strikes landed
45
109
Sig strikes attempted
105
64
Total strikes landed
71
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
106s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Joseph Benavidez
28-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
20 fights · 15-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
Blue corner
W2
Askar Askarov
"Bullet"
15-1-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—