🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Petr Yan
Aljamain Sterling
52%
48%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
21-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
27-5
W7
Current streak
W5
7
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
DQ · Round 4
Yan: 86 sig / 7 TD ·
Sterling: 97 sig / 1 TD
Petr Yan
Aljamain Sterling
66
Sig strikes landed
76
141
Sig strikes attempted
172
100
Total strikes landed
104
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
10.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
89s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
Blue corner
W5
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—