Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Drew Dober
89%
11%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
29-1
Career record
Δ 30 pp
30-15
W6
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Makhachev: 15 sig / 3 TD ·
Dober: 10 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Drew Dober
34
Sig strikes landed
19
62
Sig strikes attempted
65
58
Total strikes landed
31
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
279s
Control time
34s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
Blue corner
W3
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—