Prelims1
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez vs Thiago Moises
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Thiago Moises
55%
45%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
19-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
20-10
W1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hernandez: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Moises: 53 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Thiago Moises
35
Sig strikes landed
37
84
Sig strikes attempted
85
49
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
78s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
Blue corner
W2
Thiago Moises
20-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—