Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Kevin Croom
60%
40%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
22-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-15
W3
Current streak
—
23
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Caceres: 48 sig / 1 TD ·
Croom: 16 sig / 1 TD
Alex Caceres
Kevin Croom
54
Sig strikes landed
40
99
Sig strikes attempted
100
64
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
23 fights · 12-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
Kevin Croom
"Crash"
21-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-0