Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Pedro Munhoz
Jimmie Rivera
37%
63%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
34
Age
Δ 3y
32
20-11
Career record
Δ 18 pp
24-5
L2
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Munhoz: 94 sig / 0 TD ·
Rivera: 65 sig / 1 TD
Pedro Munhoz
Jimmie Rivera
72
Sig strikes landed
75
167
Sig strikes attempted
157
87
Total strikes landed
89
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
63s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
20-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jimmie Rivera
"El Terror"
24-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—