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Nikita Krylov vs Magomed Ankalaev

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Magomed Ankalaev
58% 42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
32-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
22-2-1
W1
Current streak
W5
13
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Krylov: 47 sig / 1 TD · Ankalaev: 43 sig / 3 TD
Nikita Krylov
Magomed Ankalaev
29
Sig strikes landed
34
56
Sig strikes attempted
62
41
Total strikes landed
61
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
66s
Control time
210s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Nikita Krylov

"The Miner"
32-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
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W UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
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L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
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L UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
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Blue corner
W5

Magomed Ankalaev

22-2-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
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W UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
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