Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nate Landwehr
Julian Erosa
36%
64%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
19-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
32-14
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Landwehr: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Erosa: 15 sig / 0 TD
Nate Landwehr
Julian Erosa
49
Sig strikes landed
61
109
Sig strikes attempted
141
64
Total strikes landed
70
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nate Landwehr
"The Train"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W1
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
32-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—