Prelims1
Bantamweight
Eddie Wineland vs John Castaneda
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Eddie Wineland
John Castaneda
32%
68%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
24-17-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
21-9-1
L1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Wineland: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Castaneda: 42 sig / 0 TD
Eddie Wineland
John Castaneda
51
Sig strikes landed
57
126
Sig strikes attempted
128
60
Total strikes landed
70
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
50s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Eddie Wineland
24-17-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
14 fights · 6-8
Last 5
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
Blue corner
L1
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
21-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—