Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jared Gordon
Danny Chavez
74%
26%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
32
Age
Δ 1y
34
22-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-5-1
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gordon: 82 sig / 2 TD ·
Chavez: 39 sig / 1 TD
Jared Gordon
Danny Chavez
56
Sig strikes landed
49
127
Sig strikes attempted
111
82
Total strikes landed
59
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
218s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
22-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
W1
Danny Chavez
"The Colombian Warrior"
12-5-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—