Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Tom Aspinall
28%
72%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
42
Age
Δ 14y
28
35-24
Career record
Δ 25 pp
16-3
W2
Current streak
W2
19
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Arlovski: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Aspinall: 37 sig / 1 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Tom Aspinall
26
Sig strikes landed
39
46
Sig strikes attempted
78
31
Total strikes landed
45
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
73s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
19 fights · 9-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
Blue corner
W2
Tom Aspinall
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—